Ukususela ekupheleni kukaJanuwari ukuya phakathi kuFebruwari, i-ICE cotton futures yaqala ukunyuka ngokukhawuleza, kunye nesivumelwano esiphambili sinyuka ukusuka malunga neesenti ezingama-82 ukuya ngaphezulu kweesenti ezingama-96. Ngeli xesha, bekungekho zinto zikhethekileyo ezintle kwimarike yekotoni, kodwa izinto ezisisiseko kunye necala elikhulu zaziziindaba ezingathandekiyo. Phantsi kwemvelaphi yokuhla ngokubanzi kwezitokhwe kunye neempahla zase-US, kunye nokuhla okukhulu kolindelo lokuncitshiswa kwenzala yase-US, i-cotton futures ivele kwisantya sokunyuka kwamaxabiso "e-Lone Wolf", okwenza abathathi-nxaxheba bemarike bazive bemangalisa.
Abahlalutyi bekamva baseMelika bathi imakethi yomqhaphu yakutshanje ayinazo izinto ezicacileyo ezibangela ukwanda, ngelixa iimali ziqhubeka nokunyusa umgangatho, ubungakanani borhwebo kunye nezikhundla ezivulekileyo zikhutshwa ngemini, le ntsebenzo ingaqhelekanga kunzima ukuyichaza, mhlawumbi iimali zifundile ukuba imakethi ayiqondi imeko. Kude kube nguFebruwari 18, iBhunga leSizwe leMqhaphu lase-United States (i-NCC) likhuphe injongo yalo yokutyala umqhaphu. Ngokutsho kophando lwe-NCC, injongo yomqhaphu wase-US ngo-2024 yi-9.8 yezigidi zeehektare, ukwehla kwe-3.7% kunyaka ophelileyo, okwahluke kakhulu kuqikelelo lwangaphambili lweCotton Farmers Magazine kunye ne-USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum. Ngaphambili, abahlalutyi bamanye amazwe ngokubanzi bakholelwa ukuba ixabiso lomqhaphu lenyuke ngokukhawuleza kakhulu, ngokwembono yegrafu yobugcisa lisondele kwinqanaba eliphezulu lemarike, kulindeleke ukuba libe nokumelana okunamandla kwi-95-96 US. Ngomhla wama-20 kuFebruwari, ngenxa yezinto ezintle ezingalindelekanga zokwehla kwendawo yeenjongo ze-NCC eMelika, ikamva le-ICE lehle kakhulu emva kokuvulwa komhla wama-20 kuFebruwari, kwaye ukusukela emva kwemini yomhla wama-20 kuFebruwari, liye lehla ngaphezulu kwamanqaku angama-200, elona liphantsi lehla laya kuma-92 eesenti.
Ngokutsho kwe-USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum, imveliso yehlabathi kunye nemfuno ziya kuphindaphindeka kabini ngo-2024/25, kwaye uqikelelo lwemfuno yekotoni lunethemba ngakumbi. Ngokuphucuka koqoqosho olukhulu, ukugaywa kwezinto zeshishini kunye nokwanda kokunikezelwa kwekotoni, ukusetyenziswa kwekotoni kulindeleke ukuba kunciphe kwaye kubuye kwakhona, kwaye amaxabiso ekotoni kulindeleke ukuba anyuke kancinci. Nangona kunjalo, nangona i-NCC ilindele ukuba indawo yekotoni yase-United States yehle, amaxabiso ekotoni anyuke kakhulu emva kokukhutshwa kophando, kwaye amathuba okunyuka kwendawo yokuhlwayela esebenzayo kwixesha elizayo makhulu. Kwangaxeshanye, ngokuphuculwa kwemozulu kwindawo evelisa ikotoni e-United States, amathuba okuba izinga lokulahla ikotoni e-United States kulo nyaka liphantsi kakhulu kunakwiminyaka emibini edlulileyo, ngoko ke amathuba okunyuka okukhulu kwimveliso yekotoni yase-United States aphezulu kakhulu. Ngokutsho koqikelelo lwangoku lwe-USDA Outlook Forum, kulindeleke ukuba imveliso yekotoni yase-US yonyaka ozayo ibe yi-16 yezigidi zeebhali, ephezulu kakhulu kune-12.4 yezigidi zeebhali zalo nyaka. Ngokwengxelo ye-NCC ye-acreage of intention, imveliso yomqhaphu yaseMelika kulindeleke ukuba ibe yi-14.6 yezigidi zeebheli, nayo iphezulu kakhulu kunalo nyaka.
Kwimeko yobonelelo lwekotoni, ingakumbi ukunyuka kobonelelo lwekotoni eMelika, indlela imfuno yekotoni enokubuyela ngayo kwimeko yayo ibaluleke kakhulu kwindlela amaxabiso ekotoni ahamba ngayo. Nokuba imeko-bume yemveliso iyaphucuka, kuya kuthatha ixesha elide ukuba imfuno ibuye. Kwimeko yakutshanje, nangona ukugaya izinto ezisetyenzisiweyo kuphelile, ukuphinda kuzaliswe kwezixhobo zoshishino kuqalile ukubonakala, kodwa ngeli nqanaba akukwazi ukuxhasa ixabiso eliphezulu kangaka lekotoni. Ngokwengxelo yemarike yangaphandle, imakethi yeendawo zekotoni yamazwe ngamazwe ngexesha leMnyhadala yaseNtwasahlobo ilula kakhulu, inqanaba lophando lwefektri liphantsi kakhulu kunexabiso lekotoni, kwaye ixabiso lentambo yamazwe ngamazwe alizange lihambelane nesantya samaxabiso ekotoni, ukuba inzuzo yemizi-mveliso kwiiveki ezimbalwa ezizayo ayinakuqinisekiswa, ixabiso eliphezulu lekotoni ekugqibeleni liya kuba nzima ukuligcina.
Umthombo: Inethiwekhi yeCotton yaseTshayina
Ixesha leposi: Feb-21-2024