Ngokwengxelo yamva nje yeNational Cotton Association of the United States (NCC), indawo yokutyala umqhaphu otyalwe ixesha elide eMelika ngo-2024 imalunga neehektare ezingama-202,000, ukwanda kwe-37.7%, kusetyenziswa isivuno esiphakathi somqhaphu otyalwe ixesha elide phantse iminyaka elishumi, imveliso iyonke yomqhaphu otyalwe ixesha elide eMelika ngo-2024/25 kulindeleke ukuba ifikelele kwiipakethi ezingama-538,000 (iitoni ezili-117,300).
Imveliso yomqhaphu eYiputa ethe yasetyenziswa ixesha elide yehla yaya kwiitoni ezingama-85,000 kwixesha lokuvuna lika-2023, xa kuthelekiswa neetoni ezingama-125,000 kunyaka ophelileyo, ukwehla ngama-32% ngonyaka. Ngo-2024, njengoko ukuthunyelwa komqhaphu eYiputa kuqhubeka kuqinile, ingeniso yabalimi iphezulu kakhulu kunamaxabiso okutya kunye neoyile, kunye nonyaka-mali ka-2023/2024 ocwangcisiweyo ngurhulumente wase-Egypt wotyalo-mali lwezolimo kunye nokunkcenkceshela kukukhula kwe-71% unyaka nonyaka, indawo yokutyala umqhaphu e-Egypt kulindeleke ukuba ibuyele ngamandla. Ukongeza, indawo yokutyala e-China nase-India, amazwe amabini amakhulu avelisa umqhaphu ethe yasetyenziswa ixesha elide, kulindeleke ukuba ibonise ubushushu obuphezulu ngo-2024, kwaye kukho amathuba aphezulu okuba kubekho iphethini "yokuvuna kabini" yendawo kunye nemveliso iyonke.
Ngokohlalutyo lweshishini, indawo yokutyala umqhaphu ende kwihlabathi liphela ngo-2024 ikhule kakhulu okanye ngenxa yezi zizathu zilandelayo:
Okokuqala, isiphumo sokuthelekisa amaxabiso phakathi komqhaphu oqinileyo kunye nomqhaphu oqinileyo siyabonakala, kwaye umdla wabalimi wokugcina nokwandisa ukutyala umqhaphu oqinileyo uphezulu. Njengeshedyuli yokuthunyelwa kwe-Qingdao Port ngoFebruwari/Matshi yaseMelika yePima cotton 2-2 46/48 (eqinileyo 38/40GPT, umqhaphu omtsha ka-2023/24) ecatshulwe kwi-220-225 cents/pound, ngelixa ishedyuli yokuthunyelwa efanayo 31-336/37 (eqinileyo 28/29GPT) ecatshulwe kwi-101-102.5 cents/pound, Umahluko phakathi kwezi zimbini phantse yi-120 cents ngepound. Ukusukela ngo-2023/24, ayisiyo kuphela ixabiso lokuthenga lomqhaphu oqinileyo weXinjiang eliphakamileyo kakhulu kunelo lomqhaphu oqinileyo we-staple, kodwa nesicatshulwa somqhaphu oqinileyo sishiye umqhaphu oqinileyo we-staple ngasemva kakhulu, kwaye ingeniso yabalimi abatyala umqhaphu oqinileyo iphezulu kakhulu kuneyomqhaphu oqinileyo we-staple.
Okwesibini, umqhaphu ungcono kwaye uyabonakala ngakumbi kunombona, ingqolowa, iimbotyi zesoya kunye nezinye izityalo. Ngokwembono yezibalo, ixabiso lee-futures ezintsha zekotoni (isivumelwano sikaDisemba 2024) liphantsi ngeesenti ezi-3.5 (4%) kunexesha elifanayo kunyaka ophelileyo (isivumelwano sikaDisemba 2023), kodwa ixabiso lee-futures zombona kwixesha elifanayo ngo-2024 lihlile phantse ngama-20% kwaye ii-futures zesoya zihlile nge-13%. Ukongeza, umthamo we-futures zekotoni ze-ICE unyuke kakhulu ngexesha le-Spring Festival, ngelixa i-futures zombona nengqolowa zazikwindlela eqhubekayo yokuhla, kwaye isiphumo sexabiso lomqhaphu sasisiya sibonakala ngakumbi nangakumbi. Kakade ke, umqhaphu othe tyaba elide uthandwa kakhulu ngabalimi kune-futures cotton kunye nezinye izityalo.
Okwesithathu, kutshanje, ummandla we-cotton osentshona we-United States Pima cotton uyaqhubeka nokwamkela imvula, ukufuma komhlaba kuphuculwe kakhulu, izinga lokushiywa liza kuncipha kakhulu kunakwiminyaka emibini edlulileyo, kwaye ukukhula kokutyala umqhaphu ixesha elide kunye nemveliso kulindeleke ukuba kube namandla. Uqikelelo lwamva nje lwe-United States Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration lubonisa ukuba imeko yembalela kumzantsi-ntshona we-United States kulo nyaka iya kuphucuka kakhulu, kwaye umkhwa omhle uya kuqhubeka ubuncinane kude kube nguMeyi, umdla wokutyala umqhaphu + uncedo lwemozulu, ummandla we-cotton osemzantsi-ntshona kunye nommandla we-cotton osentshona akuyi kunciphisa kakhulu izinga lokushiywa, kodwa kuya kwandisa indawo enokuvunwa ngo-2024, kwaye ukusebenza komqhaphu ohlala ixesha elide kuya kuba yi-rebound enamandla.
Umthombo: Iziko loLwazi lweKhothoni laseTshayina
Ixesha lokuthumela: Februwari-20-2024