Ngokohlalutyo lwequmrhu eligunyazisiweyo leshishini, imeko yamva nje echazwe liSebe lezoLimo lase-US ngoDisemba ibonisa imfuno eqhubekayo ebuthathaka kulo lonke ukubonelela, kwaye umsantsa wobonelelo lwehlabathi kunye nemfuno yehlile yaya kuthi ga kwiibhali ezingama-811,000 kuphela (i-112.9 yezigidi zeebales imveliso kunye I-113.7 yezigidi zeebhali ukusetyenziswa), okuncinci kakhulu kunoSeptemba no-Oktobha.Ngelo xesha, i-gap ye-global supply and demand gap yayilindeleke ukuba idlule iipakethi ze-3 yezigidi (i-3.5 yezigidi ngoSeptemba kunye ne-3.2 yezigidi ngo-Oktobha).Ukuncipha komsantsa phakathi konikezelo kunye nemfuno kuthetha ukuba ukunyuka kwamaxabiso womqhaphu kunokwehla.

Ukongeza ekucuthekeni konikezelo lwehlabathi kunye nomsantsa wemfuno, mhlawumbi okubaluleke ngakumbi kwicala lamaxabiso ngumbuzo oqhubekayo wemfuno.Ukusukela ngoMeyi, uqikelelo lwe-USDA lokusetyenziswa kwefektri yehlabathi jikelele lwehlile ukusuka kwi-121.5 yezigidi zeebhali ukuya kwi-113.7 yezigidi zeebhali (ukuncipha okunyukayo kwe-7.8 yezigidi zeebhali phakathi kukaMeyi noDisemba).Iingxelo zeshishini zakutsha nje ziyaqhubeka nokuchaza imfuno ecothayo yomlambo kunye nemingeni ecela umngeni kwi-mill.Uqikelelo losetyenziso lunokwehla ngakumbi phambi kokuba imeko yokusetyenziswa iphucuke kwaye yenze umzantsi.

Kwangaxeshanye, ukuncitshiswa kwemveliso yomqhaphu yehlabathi kuye kwayenza buthathaka intsalela yomqhaphu yehlabathi.Ukusukela kuqikelelo lokuqala lwe-USDA ngoMeyi, uqikelelo lwemveliso yomqhaphu yehlabathi luncitshisiwe ukusuka kwi-119.4 yezigidi zeebhali ukuya kwi-113.5 yezigidi zeebhali (ukuncipha okongezelekayo kwe-5.9 yezigidi zeebhali ngoMeyi-Disemba).Ukunciphisa imveliso yekotoni yehlabathi jikelele ngexesha lemfuno ebuthathaka kunokuthintela amaxabiso ekotoni ukuba awele ngokukhawuleza.

Imarike yekotoni ayikho yodwa imarike yezolimo ehluphekayo.Xa kuthelekiswa nonyaka odlulileyo, ixabiso lomqhaphu omtsha lihle nge-6% (ixabiso elitsha langoku lekamva le-ICE likaDisemba ka-2024).Amaxabiso ombona ehle nangakumbi, nto leyo ebonisa ukuba umqhaphu unomtsalane ngakumbi xa kuthelekiswa nezi zityalo zikhuphisanayo kunokuba kwakunjalo kunyaka ophelileyo.Oku kucebisa ukuba umqhaphu kufuneka ukwazi ukugcina okanye ukwandisa i-acreage kunyaka olandelayo wesityalo.Idityaniswe nokwenzeka kokuphuculwa kweemeko zokukhula kwiindawo ezifana nentshona yeTexas (ukufika kwe-El Nino kuthetha ukufuma okungaphezulu), imveliso yehlabathi inokunyuka ngo-2024/25.

Phakathi ngoku ukuya ekupheleni kuka-2024/25, ukubuyiswa kwemfuno kulindeleke ukuba kufikelele kwinqanaba elithile.Nangona kunjalo, ukuba unikezelo kunye nemfuno yesityalo sonyaka ozayo zonke zihamba kwicala elifanayo, imveliso, ukusetyenziswa, kunye nezitokhwe zinokuqhubeka zilinganisa, zixhasa uzinzo lwamaxabiso.