Ngelixa ezinye izinto zorhwebo zasekhaya zibuthathaka, ikamva lomqhaphu “liye lasebenza kakhulu” kwaye laqala ukunyuka ukusuka ngasekupheleni kukaMatshi.Ngokukodwa, emva kokuphela kuka-Matshi, ixabiso lekhontrakthi ephambili ye-cotton ye-2309 yenyuka ngokuthe ngcembe, ukunyuka okunyukayo okungaphezulu kwe-10%, i-intraday ephezulu yabetha i-yuan ye-15510 / ton, ngenxa ephezulu entsha malunga nesiqingatha sonyaka.

umfanekiso

Umqhamo wekamva lomqhaphu wakutsha nje

UZheng Mian uyaphakama kwakhona

Ibrashi eqhubekayo ngaphezu konyaka onesiqingatha ukuphakama

Kwangaxeshanye, ujoliso lwasekhaya kwicala lokubonelela ngeendaba ezilungileyo, umqhaphu weZheng uqhubeke nokuhlaziya okuphezulu.Ngomhla wama-28 ku-Epreli, ikhontrakthi engundoqo ye-Zheng yekotoni ivaliwe kwi-15485 yuan / ton, ukunyuka kwansuku zonke kwe-1.37%.Kwaye ikhontrakthi yakha yabetha i-15,510 yuan / toni, ngaphezu konyaka kunye nesiqingatha elona xabiso liphezulu.

I-ICE i-cotton futures yavuka ngobusuku emva kokuba ingxelo ye-USDA ibonise ukunyuka okubukhali kwi-cotton kumazwe angaphandle.Ikhontrakthi ye-ICE July yekotoni yenyuka i-2.04 cent, okanye i-2.6 ipesenti, ukuhlala kwi-78.36 cent pound.

Kwiimarike zasekhaya, ukwehla kwendawo yokutyala yasekhaya yoNyaka omtsha kudibaniswa nemozulu embi kwiindawo eziphambili zokuvelisa ikotoni, icala lokubonelela ngeendaba ezilungileyo ukukhuthaza iziko lexabiso lekotoni lomxhuzulane.Nangona kunjalo, utshintsho lwemozulu kunye nokutyalwa komqhaphu kunye nokukhula kusafuna ukulandelwa ngokuqhubekayo, kwaye kuya kuhlala kuqatshelwe ukuba imeko yokuvuna ingenzeka kuNyaka omtsha.Imfuno, ii-odolo ezintsha ezisezantsi ngokubanzi, iinkxalabo zemfuno zinciphisa indlela yamaxabiso ekotoni.I-China Cotton Association kwinkqubela phambili yophando lwesizwe lomqhaphu ibonisa ukuba phakathi ku-Epreli, izinto zemozulu zalo nyaka azihambisani nokuhlwayela, inkqubela phambili yokuhlwayela iyonke icotha kunonyaka ophelileyo, ukucutha imveliso yokutyala kulindeleke ukuba kuqhubeke ukuvubela, ukwenza ukuqina. inkxaso yexabiso lomqhaphu weZheng, ixabiso lomqhaphu leZheng kulindeleke ukuba ligcine umkhwa womothuko wexesha elifutshane.Iholide kaMeyi iyasondela, nikela ingqalelo kumngcipheko weholide elide.

Izinto zamandla ekotoni zasekhaya

Ukunyuswa kwangaphandle, kwangaxeshanye inkxaso yobonelelo lwasekhaya.UZheng Mian ugcina umkhwa owomeleleyo.

Ngokombono woMseki we-Medium Futures Research Institute we-cotton umhlalutyi we-Bloomberg, amandla akutsha nje ekotoni yasekhaya, ngokukodwa enxulumene nezinto ezininzi, enye ingozi enkulu kaMatshi ngenxa yokwandiswa kwexesha elifutshane le-Federal Reserve, ukuxhalaba kweemarike kuphelile;Okwesibini, izinto ezisisiseko kushishino lwasekhaya umqhaphu jikelele ukugcina ipateni kade ukubuyiswa, izinto ezisisiseko ngcono kunale minyaka mibini idlulileyo, ukusetyenziswa kwekhaya ukubuyiswa ngokukhawuleza, kudityaniswe nendawo yokutyala kulo nyaka kuncitshiswe xa kuthelekiswa kunyaka ophelileyo, imarike ikholelwa ukuba oku. isibonelelo sonyaka siya kuncitshiswa;Okwesithathu, amanani okuthunyelwa kwempahla kumazwe angaphandle ebengcono kunoko bekulindelwe, ngakumbi kwikota yokuqala, ethe yanda kakhulu ekuthengisweni kwempahla kumazwe angaphandle kwi-ASEAN nase-Afrika, nto leyo ethe yavuselela ithemba lemarike ngekamva.

Nangona amaxabiso e-cotton kunye ne-cotton enyukile mva nje, isiphelo sentengiso asishushu njengemakethi yekamva.Ingabonwa ukuba emva kokuba ixabiso lekotoni linyuke laya kwi-15300 yuan / ton, imfuno ephantsi yomlambo yayinzima kakhulu.Ukuchatshazelwa kukunyuka komqhaphu, ixabiso lezinye iintlobo zemisonto yekotoni lenyuka, kwaye uninzi lwahlala luzinzile.Ngokundwendwela kunye nokuqonda amashishini asezantsi, kufunyaniswe ukuba ixabiso lomqhaphu langoku liyenyuka, umsonto womqhaphu kukunyuka okuncinci, kodwa umzi-mveliso wokuluka awamkelwa.Impahla yokunxiba, ilaphu laqala ukuqokelelana.Ukuba imfuno yangaphakathi nangaphandle ayiqali, i-industrial chain chain ukusuka ezantsi ukuya phezulu, ngokukhawuleza umsonto wekotoni uya kuqala ukuqokelela.Ukuba imfuno yangaphakathi nengaphandle ayinakutshintshwa ngokupheleleyo phambi kokuphela konyaka, ukuchithwa kwe-terminal akunakwenziwa ngokufanelekileyo, kusenokuba yintlekele 'yokuvelisa ngokugqithisileyo'.

Ukusuka kwimbono zemveli zonyaka, ngoMeyi ukuya kuJulayi ngenxa yexesha eliphantsi lonyaka, kulo nyaka kwakhona kwabonakala imeko ethile "yexesha lencopho ayiphumelelanga", ukungabikho kwemiyalelo kuseyinkalo ebalulekileyo ebetha umsinga, silindele ukuba ixabiso lomqhaphu kwi imeko akukho recovery ebalulekileyo yemfuno kunzima ukugcina eliphezulu, ixabiso emva kwemini kunzima ukugcina eliphezulu, Ngamana umlindo umqhaphu oscillations kuwa.